The Exile's report - September 2nd

Wednesday, 03 September 2008 01:50

The Exile's Blog

In a world where 31 conspired against one...



After two playoff wins in 41 years, we were hopelessly trapped by expectations: Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide, no way out.

In 2007, Payton was so much smarter than Haslett and Mora. He could coach both sides of the ball! How could there be a letdown?

The answer we got was….7-9!

There was no hope for our desperate bid to recapture the mojo before the 2008 opener.

No hope, until...

A one-DVD army of hope stood tall. The Exile’s best friend, a recording of the franchise’s all-time high-water mark: New Orleans 42, Dallas 17. In a span of 27 minutes, the Saints outscored the most hated franchise in America 42-10, with the Cowboys’ only TD coming on a fluke tip on a 4th-and-8.

So what did we see at the top of Mt. Everest that we didn’t see in 2007? And can we see it in 2008? I thought I saw two huge points above all.

1. In 2006, We Sure Looked Better Running the Ball.

Didn’t we? Other than the fact that we rushed for 3.7 yards per carry in both seasons?

Of course, in 2006 we had much more of a healthy Deuce, a healthy Reggie, and a healthy Jammal Brown, and we weren’t behind early in nearly as many games. However, our pass/run ratio in 2006 was 580/472, or 54.6%, and in 2007 it was 652/392, or 62.5%.

I went back and looked at the four other offenses that were the most consistently prolific over 2006-2007. Here for each is the pass/run percentage, league rank in yards and league rank in points scored:

2007

New England 56.6%, 1st, 1st

Dallas, 55.9%, 3rd, 2nd

New Orleans, 62.5%, 4th, 12th

Indianapolis, 55.3%, 5th, 3rd

Philadelphia, 57.8%, 6th, 17th

2006

New Orleans, 54.6%, 1st, 5th

Philadelphia, 56.7%, 2nd, 6th

Indianapolis, 55.9%, 3rd, 2nd

Dallas, 51.7%, 5th, 4th

New England, 51.4%, 11th, 7th

Honestly, I’m not sure this proves anything, other than how complicated this game is and how reliance on any one or two (or three or more) stat categories can be without using many others to develop a whole context. There are a few observations, including that having a 54-56% pass/run range, absent other factors, sure seems to be a nice balance, and that how many points you score can be drastically affected by so many things, such as turnover ratio, defensive and special teams TDs, and red zone TD conversions.

(And if you have time to sift through all that, you’re probably still living with your mom.)

As a result, while our 2007 pass/run ratio seems wildly high, I can’t prove that Payton “got the fever” last year; we were behind a lot early, we had banged up or IR’d running backs, and we were still fourth in the NFL in yards gained. Sometimes that “balance” can be effect rather than cause: nobody was more pass-happy early in games than the Pats last year, but their leads let them run to their hearts’ content, whereas the Saints got little run push early in games and were often behind as well.

I can tell you I think I’d like to see a 55% pass/run ratio in 2008; I just can’t tell you we shouldn’t come out throwing every game. All I can say is it doesn’t feel right, and that we seem to have trouble running the ball in short-yardage/goal-line situations. It could again be a cause/effect issue, whether we don’t give the OL a chance to get a run-game rhythm, just not the right talent mix on the OL to do it, not the right kind of backs…I just can’t put my finger on it.

2. In 2006, We Covered Their Wide Receivers.

This one is a little more anecdotal. This team did not have any real quick, fearsome DE pass rushers or blitzing LBs in either season. What we had in 2006 was a healthier DL than in 2007 (especially DT Brian Young and DE Charles Grant who were banged up last year), a much better CB (Fred Thomas over the disastrous Jason David) and a veteran SS (Jay Bellamy/Omar Stoutmire rather than de facto rookie Roman Harper).

If you look at the sacks/opponent passer rating, in 2006 it was 38/81.5, and in 2007 a tragic 32/96.9. What on earth happened? Do six sacks make that much of a difference?

Two things: our front four got far less pressure on its own, I believe primarily because Young and Grant were injured, and the pass coverage in the secondary was not nearly as good. This remains a coverage-sack team, for now, until a slimmer Grant and newcomers first-round pick DT Sed Ellis and FA DE Bobby McCray show they can add punch to the four-man rush. And our coverage last year, outside of CB Mike McKenzie, was simply terrible. No excuses.

Also, those sack totals are a little deceptive. In 2006, the DL had 28.5 of the 38 sacks, and if you throw in the OLBs, 36 of the 38 sacks. We could afford to pressure without excessive blitz schemes, and the balance of a disciplined rush plus good coverage worked. In 2007, the DL had only 18 sacks, and even with the OLBs only 22 of the 32 sacks. It seems like we were taking more chances, sacrificing already mediocre coverage by sending DBs and the MLB to get any semblance of pressure, and we paid a ridiculous price for it.

My prediction? The combination of better talent and health on the DL, plus far more quality at the CB/nickel/dime positions this year, will improve this defense greatly. Not to curse him with faint praise, I think Tracy Porter will take some lumps and soon be the best CB draft pick in the team’s history, and it will make all the difference between not quite getting there and putting the QB on the ground.

As I said last week, this season was likely critical for DC Gary Gibbs’s career. Nothing helps a coach’s career like more better and healthy players.

THE PREDICTION:

I don’t know if we’re going to run it any better, but we will run it more. On the other hand, this will be a defense in the top half of the NFL. There are some other positive factors, such as the high likelihood of not starting 0-4 after the hard lessons of September 2007; the addition of perhaps not dominant but certainly talented players such as TE Jeremy Shockey and MLB Jonathan Vilma; a Reggie Bush with something to prove; and what looks to be improved special teams staffed with more veteran players.

There are still some negatives, like the lack of playmaker question marks all over the defense; the failure of any OL prospects to force their way in as a new dominant starting O-lineman; and a RB collection of guys with all the fabulous parts in the world, just not enough in any one player.

Still this team looks a lot more to me like late 2006 than early 2007, and I see, despite a ridiculous road stretch in mid-season, an 11-5 record and a division title.

Teams on the rise: Carolina, Houston, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Miami

Teams on the decline: New England, Washington, Denver, Seattle, Tampa Bay

Teams about where they were: NY Giants, Dallas, San Diego, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Buffalo, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Tennessee

Teams drifting without a rudder: NY Jets, Chicago, St. Louis, San Francisco, Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Detroit, Oakland, Kansas City

I leave the more specific predictions to the experts.

RIP, Don. Trailers will never be the same.

Later this week: We look at the Bucs and week one, and shake our heads about the national media’s hysteria over a small pressure relief opening in a floodwall gate while the WDSU news team calmly plays bourre waiting for something interesting to happen.