METAIRIE – First off, let’s dismiss this meaningless statistic that’s being thrown around: no team that has lost its last three regular-season games has gone on to the Super Bowl.

This stat is being used to dismiss the Saints, losers of their last three regular-season games. First of all, most teams that lose their last three regular-season games don’t even make the playoffs.

What I’d like to know is, how many teams that lost their last three regular-season games also won their first 13 and therefore were still the top seed in their conference even after the losing streak? Ah, never mind.

The point is, much like the two-week buildup to the Super Bowl, this two-week build-up to the Saints’ divisional playoff game – it’s really three weeks if you start the clock when New Orleans wrapped up the No. 1 seed – provides way too much time for people to overanalyze and zero in on minutiae to the exclusion of the big picture.

Do you want to lose your last three games heading into the playoffs? No, that’s not the preference. But the big-picture question is: does the three-game losing streak mean the team has been figured out, does it mean the team “peaked too soon”, or neither.

In New Orleans’ case I think the answer is neither. First, dismiss the 23-10 “exhibition” loss to the Panthers on Sunday the way you should dismiss the fourth exhibition game for any team in any summer. It means nothing, nada, zip.

Second, if Garrett Hartley had made that 37-yard field goal at the end of the penultimate game against the Bucs, we’re not talking about a three-game losing streak. Sure, blowing a 17-0 lead to a two-win team was disturbing, and Hartley did miss, and the Saints did lose. But if changing one play could dramatically alter the perception, maybe the perception is skewed.

Three weeks ago, the Cowboys came into the Superdome and were clearly a better team than the Saints. Dallas was playing to save its season, desperate to erase the stigma of recent December failures, and it responded like a team that has established itself as a strong Super Bowl contender.

Still, New Orleans, despite being staggered by a 24-3 flurry, found itself down just 24-17 with the ball and ample time to score a tying touchdown and get into overtime. It didn’t, but that’s the most lopsided loss this team has in a game in which it utilized its MVP-worthy quarterback. This isn’t a 16-0 team, but it is a 13-3 team. I see no evidence that the Saints have been “exposed.”

Now for the peaking-too-soon possibility: We hear that the Saints will not have won a game in more than a month when they take the field for the divisional playoffs.

Sure, the Saints were playing at a higher level when they whipped New England on Nov. 30 than they have been since, and they haven’t won a game since beating Atlanta on Dec. 13.

They also have been playing without key injured players, and each one that didn’t go on injured reserve figures to be available when the Saints return to the field Jan. 16, though the loss of defensive end Charles Grant on Tuesday was a downer. Yeah, every team has injuries, but does every team get virtually everyone back in time for the playoffs?

Did New Orleans peak too soon or is it getting ready to peak when Jabari Greer, Tracy Porter, Randall Gay, Darren Sharper, Scott Shanle, Scott Fujita, Jonathan Vilma, Sedrick Ellis, Drew Brees, Lance Moore, Jeremy Shockey, and Pierre Thomas – all of whom sat out at least one of the last 11 games – all play in the same game for the first time since October 18?

“I think when we play in the playoffs it’s going to be the same guys we started week one with and dominated with,” guard Carl Nicks said, “so I think that’s what we’re going to do.”

We’ll see, but the point is you can’t zero in on how the short-handed team played for three weeks and dismiss how the healthy one played for eight or 10 or 13, not when the healthy one is the team that’s going to line up against the Packers, Cardinals, or Eagles.

One more thing about the big picture. For all those saying Sean Payton should have played Brees and other key players against the Panthers to try and “build momentum”, how much “momentum” do you think Bill Belichick built by losing Wes Welker?

And speaking of momentum, have much of it did Arizona have last season when it lost four of its last six games with an average margin of defeat of more than 24 points? Answer: enough to go to the Super Bowl.

Here’s the bottom line: The Saints have put themselves in a position where they need to win two games in the Superdome to get to the Super Bowl. Brees has rightly pointed out that this opportunity guarantees them nothing, but nonetheless it’s the easiest route to the Super Bowl that a team can have.

This team knows that ultimately it will be judged by how it performs in the post-season, and if it fails to take advantage of this opportunity, its season will have been a failure.

That’s because New Orleans will be fresher than its opponent on Jan. 16, it will be the healthiest it has been in three months, and it might be the healthiest team in the playoffs.

Yeah, the Saints have a three-game losing streak. They also have everything going for them – a bye, homefield advantage throughout, and key players getting healthy at the optimum time.

Looking at the big picture, there’s no excuse for this team on a three-game losing streak not to make it to the Super Bowl.

(Les East's blog was voted "Best Sports Blog" by the Press Club of New Orleans.)

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