Going up? Or goin' down? Are
the Saints headed in the right direction? Is the defense good enough to
contend for a title? Do they have the best offense in the NFL? Get in
the game. Go ahead! Give your take on the Black & Gold here...(More)
Maybe next year....It's time to break out the familiar refrain for long-suffering Saints fans. While players and coaches will continue to preach the gospel message of possibly making the playoffs, perish the thought. That is, of course, unless you are an aficionado of "new math."
It's over for the 2008 New Orleans Saints following a 23-20 loss at Tampa Bay. The Saints are destined to finish last in the NFC South. That's good news for next year--it guarantees a last place schedule!
The Saints are 6-6. Should they win the remainder of their games (an unlikely scenario), they would finish 10-6. That would leave the Saints 7-5 in the NFC and 3-3 in the division. Two teams make the playoffs as Wild Cards.
Either Tampa Bay or Carolina will claim one spot. Both teams are 9-3. Tampa Bay will have a better NFC record than the Saints and split with New Orleans. Carolina is 6-3 in the conference. Atlanta is 8-4 overall and 5-3 in the NFC. Both Carolina and Atlanta have beaten the Saints.
Dallas is 8-4 and playing well. They are 6-4 in the NFC. Washington is 7-5, including 6-4 in the NFC. They have also beaten the Saints and would win any tie-breaker with New Orleans.
Moral to the story--even with 10 wins, which most likely won't happen, the Saints will not make the playoffs. They would lose virtually any tie to any contender. The longest win streak for this team has been two games. Do you really expect them to win four-in-a-row?
I have heard many criticize Sean Payton for yesterday's loss at Tampa. While I have not been a huge fan of Payton's approach and play-calling at times. this one was not on him. In fact, he coached well, with the exception of a pair of ill-advised calls on third-and-one and fourth-and-one in the first half. An end-around to Devery Henderson against the league's fastest defense? A toss sweep to "powerful" Reggie Bush? Please!
While Deuce McAllister has clearly lost a step, he is the only big back you have. He can make a yard. He never saw the field on these plays. Hell, on one of the plays, Payton went with an empty backfield. Are you kidding me? In the rain and wind, Payton passed 47 times (72%) and ran 18 times (28%). While that is clearly against the obvious in such conditions, Payton did the right thing, outside of the ill-advised short-yardage plays referenced.
The Saints cannot run the football against anyone that is any good. Their offensive line is not good enough. Their running backs are not good enough. Pierre Thomas is a nice player but not an every-down back. It was painful watching Slidell High and Tulane's Matt Forte last night for the Bears. He rushed for 96 yards and caught a touchdown pass. He has rushed for 1,012 yards and six touchdowns and has caught 48 passes for 358 yards and four touchdowns in his rookie season and is the focal point of Chicago's offense. He is 6'2, 216--a big back who has speed, good receiving skills, power, cutback ability and the ability to block. He was a second-round draft pick. The Saints could have had him. I screamed for over a year about how good this kid would be as a pro. Hate to say I told you so....
Back to the Saints. Sean Payton's much-maligned defense played very well at Tampa, holding the Bucs to just 254 yards and 11 first downs and getting stops on 13 of 15 third-down plays. Jonathan Vilma was terrific, recording seven tackles, intercepting a pass and forcing a fumble. They gave Drew Brees the football twice in the fourth quarter in an even game.
On both occasions, Brees threw interceptions. The first one resulted in the game-winning field goal, a 37-yard field goal by Matt Bryant with 1:55 to play. The second one killed the Saints. Brees is the Saints' best player, their meal ticket. The Saints left Raymond James Stadium hungry.
Brees threw three interceptions, had a fourth called back on a very shaky call against Ronde Barber, and had at least two others dropped. Simply put, he had a bad day at the worst possible time. Of course, his receivers dropped eight balls. Then again, these were not passing conditions. That's what happens when you cannot or will not run the football. Brees has had a very good but not great year. Great players win these kind of games and are not winless in three seasons when trailing entering the fourth quarter. He is not the NFL MVP. That should be reserved for a key player on a winning team, a playoff team.
Tampa Bay won despite passing for only 105 yards. That's because they rushed for 149 yards, limited turnovers (one) and trusted their outstanding defense. The formula worked. It always has in the NFL. It always will. Ask the New York Giants.
Garrett Hartley continued to shine, nailing a pair of field goals in tough conditions. He is eight-for-eight on the season. Marques Colston, despite one drop, looked like himself for the first time this year, catching six passes for 106 yards. Jeremy Shockey caught four passes but had a key drop and was part of a busted route (along with Buck Ortega) which resulted in a Kato June interception in the end zone. The two tight ends ran "go" routes about three yards apart, bringing extra defenders into the play. Why does trouble seem to follow Shockey wherever he goes? Reggie Bush was awful, losing 15 yards running backwards on punt returns. He dropped two passes and could have had a third. He rushed for zero yards. He was so bad that he was pulled by Payton on punt returns and on offense.
The Saints are now 0-17 under Sean Payton when trailing entering the fourth quarter. That's an alarming statistic for an innovative coach who is known for his elaborate schemes and prolific passing offense. Why is this? Obviously, this team lacks both the confidence and perhaps the overall ability to win games in the clutch. They have lost games in the fourth quarter to Washington (29-24), Denver (34-32), Minnesota (30-27) and now Tampa Bay (23-20). Good teams win most of these games. The Saints are not a good team.
They are not a bad team, either. That's the problem. Much like they were after one great season under Jim Haslett, they are a maddeningly mediocre team, the worst place to be. You don't make the playoffs. You don't draft high. You simply muddle forward in the middle.
The Sean Payton regime is starting to resemble the Jim Haslett regime in eery fashion. Haslett went 11-7, won a division, won a playoff game and got NFL Coach of the Year in year one (2000). Sean Payton went 11-7, won a playoff game and got NFL Coach of the Year in year one (2006). In year two, Haslett went 7-9 (2001). In year two, Payton went 7-9 (2008). In year three, Haslett was 9-7 and missed the playoffs (2002). In year three, Payton is 6-6 and will miss the playoffs. Haslett's next two years were 8-8 (2003 and 2004) prior to the implosion of 2005 (3-13) and Hurricane Katrina after which he lost his job.
Injuries have certainly hurt the Saints in 2008 but injuries did not lose the four close games that they could have won. Martin Gramatica did not help. Of course, the Saints wasted a draft pick on a kicker (Taylor Mehlhaff). It appears that they wasted a first-round pick on Robert Meachem last year. They spent money unwisely on Jason David, Charles Grant and Will Smith. They went into the season with Kevin Kaesviharn and Josh Bullocks occupying one safety spot. Neither can play. They spent two draft picks on Jeremy Shockey. Billy Miller has been a better player.
That's what leads to 6-6 and middle-of-the-pack status. That's what leads to a last-place finish in a suddenly very good division. Go ahead....Say it.....Maybe next year. It certainly won't happen this year.
Maybe next year....It's time to break out the familiar refrain for long-suffering Saints fans. While players and coaches will continue to preach the gospel message of possibly making the playoffs, perish the thought. That is, of course, unless you are an aficionado of "new math."
