A glass-half-empty look at the 2009 Saints

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The New Orleans Saints have failed to make the playoffs the last two seasons, finishing 8-8 last season and 7-9 the season before that.

If they're going to win enough games to get into the playoffs in 2009, all of their changes will have to balance out to a fairly significant improvement.

They've made many personnel moves in an attempt to improve, but not one of them is a sure thing. The law of averages says for each one that turns out well, another will turn out not so well.

So if New Orleans is to improve enough to earn a playoff berth, it will have to beat the odds and hit on the majority of its offseason moves.

Can that be done? Sure, but don't bet on it.

Here's my glass-is-half-empty Saints preview, meant to balance the glass-is-half-full preview I submitted last week.

Saints boosters everyone are drooling over the prospect of Gregg Williams running the defense instead of Gary Gibbs. Well, Williams appears to be an upgrade over Gibbs, but how many more wins can he personally be responsible for?

Players win - and lose - games. Did the talent on the Saints' defense the last two seasons suggest that side of the ball should have performed significantly higher than it did under Gibbs? I don't think so.

Do the defensive acquisitions suggest that the talent level is improved enough to generate additional victories? That's questionable.

Let's remember that this team's two best defensive ends - Will Smith and Charles Grant - will miss at least one quarter of the season, the first four games. Although they are overrated and overpaid, is their absence a good start to playing significantly better defense?

Behind them you have a solid backup in Bobby McCray and no one else that you can be confident will be consistently effective. The interior of the line features a promising-but-unproven second-year player in Sedrick Ellis and little else.

The linebackers - considered by most to have been a weak link last season - don't figure to be any better, unless the return to health of Mark Simoneau is considered a big deal.

When the retirement of one linebacker who had sat out last seasons, and an injury to a fourth-round draft choice deal a serious blow to your plans, your plan was flawed to begin with.

The secondary has a lot of new faces and should be better; it couldn't be much worse. Raise your hand if at this time a year ago you thought Jabari Greer was a major asset to his team. That's if you know which team he was with or had even heard of him a year ago.

Tracy Porter has had a decent four-plus-game NFL career, and Randall Gay is a fairly solid veteran. Malcolm Jenkins has promise as a rookie, and, well, it's best that I not even bring up Jason David.

Darren Sharper was once a very good NFL safety. We'll have to wait and see what he is in 2009.

The fashionable belief that Williams' magic wand has turned Roman Harper into a stud is typical offseason dream weaving. The same can be said of the popular experiment with Usama Young, who's right now just a young player who couldn't cut it at his natural position.

How are the Saints going to be significantly better on defense? They need to create a lot more turnovers, and the first step to doing that is to generate a much better pass rush, preferably without going blitz-crazy.

Where does an improved pass rush by the front four come from? Got me. Will Williams' more aggressive style create a better pass rush through blitzes? Probably, but that means leaving yourself vulnerable to big plays. It would be hard to give up more big plays than this defense gave up last year, but last year they were more conservative and this year will be more risk-taking, so don't rule that out.

Sure the defense can be better, but it can just as easily be the same or even a little worse. In other words, you can't count on it being improved enough to get New Orleans back into the playoffs.

But, you say, it's OK if the defense isn't great. It just has to be average and the offense will take care of the rest. Maybe, maybe not.

The offense was No. 1 in the NFL last season in yards and points, so it has to be absolutely the best in the NFL again just to not take a step back.

OK, Drew Brees is great and he has a nice set of receivers - nice set, one that wouldn't look so nice is it didn't have an elite quarterback making it look better than it would be playing with a less-than-elite quarterback.

Marques Colston - good, solid Pro Bowl-caliber receiver; Devery Henderson, a big-play receiver who seemingly balances each big play with a dropped pass. Lance Moore - one pretty good season. Robert Meachem? Show me something, anything.

Tight end - Billy Miller has the most skins on the wall with this team, Jeremy Shockey hasn't shown anything, and Dan Campbell the same, although he has the excuse of not having been here for a year and not costing two draft choices to get here.

If the Saints offense is going to get the team to the playoffs this season it is going to have to be more balanced - fewer passes, more runs, better rushing average.

Reggie Bush is Reggie Bush - good, dangerous, versatile player, but his team's running game will never be really good unless someone else provides solid down-in and down-out production. Can Pierre Thomas do that? Perhaps. Same with Mike Bell. There's hope there, but, again, no guarantees.

We know what the offensive line is - really good in pass protection, thanks in part to Brees' decision-making and willingness to avoid a sack at any cost - and average at best in run-blocking.

The special teams overall have been less than special and unless a rookie punter and a place-kicker coming off half a rookie season both have Pro Bowl seasons, there's no reason to expect them to be special in 2009. The oddly timed release of dependable long snapper Kevin Houser could prove to be regrettable.

What we have here is a lot like what we had the last two seasons - one of the best offenses in the NFL, one that has to be almost perfect in order to give the team any chance of reaching the postseason - and a defense that doesn't have to be much more than middle-of-the-pack in order to hold up its end of the bargain, but one for which more than middle-of-the-road leaves virtually no margin for error.

With all that in mind, here's your glass-is-half-empty bottom line:

The offense will be really good once again, but even if it finds more balance from the running game, the overall production won't surpass last season; the absence of Will Smith and Charles Grant for the first four games will retard the defense's overall development; ultimately the defense will provide more hope with a few more sacks and turnovers as a result of more aggressiveness, but even more big plays will be allowed; the special teams will be neither a major asset or liability; and New Orleans will finish the season 8-8 and out of the playoffs again.

Still to come in NewOrleans.com's countdown to training camp:

July 10 - Three weeks and counting - Sean Payton, Year IV.

July 17 - Two weeks and counting - Welcome home, training camp.

July 24 - One week and counting - The Saints, the media, and you.

July 31 - Training camp Opening Day - The State of the Saints Union.

Comments (4)

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written by Les, July 07, 2009

Thanks for the input, Lumpy. You're right, there's still a lot of concerns about the front seven and lot of pressure on the secondary. I'll post some thoughts on Sean Payton on Friday.

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written by Lumpy1, July 06, 2009

This preview is more realistic than the one last week. Good balance. Can't see where this defense is any better up front. In fact, the front 7 may be worse. Secondary may be improved. They better be if you blitz a lot.

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written by Les, July 05, 2009

Hi, Bill:

Good to hear from you and thanks for the feedback. If you missed it, go back and read my glass-is-half-full preview from last week. The point of the two columns is that the same set of facts can be viewed differently, especially when trying to predict a football team's prospects early in the summer. After we see training camp and the preseason, I hope to offer a different perspective.

Thanks,

Les

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written by bill johnson, July 04, 2009

Les,
I did not remember you as being such a pessimist in grade school. While it is true that the Saints' history is poor and they seemed to have been snake bit last year, their strong locker room, leadership, and mix of seasoned vets and rookies and sophomores should be more than enough to put them over the top this year and for a few years to come.

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