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NewOrleans.Com/Sports - New Orleans Saints News |
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Written by Les East Thursday, 25 June 2009 22:55
Every player coming off an injury will be fully healed and better than before, every free agent signee and draft choice will exceed the most optimistic hopes, every new coach will turn out to be a genius, all those underachieving young players will finally meet - and surpass - original expectations, and all those aging, declining veterans will swim in a fountain of youth.
In short, this will be the season you've been dreaming of.
Of course reality will start to set in during training camp, then preseason games, and ultimately the regular season.
The expectations of early summer and the realities and early winter won't mesh as well as you'd like, but reality is for another day.
There's nothing going on with the Saints for another month, so the easiest way to pass the dog days is to enjoy the reality-free expectations of what's to come.
With that in mind, I hereby provide my glass-is-half-full look at the Saints five weeks before the start of training camp 2009.
It's easy, and understandable, to think the Saints' chances of returning to the playoffs after a two-year absence are tied directly to the ability of the defense to improve significantly.
The performance of the defense will be a major factor, but any glass-is-half-full look at the Saints has to start with the offense. That remains the strength of the team.
New Orleans has everything it needs to repeat as the NFL's No. 1 offense, and maybe even improve.
Drew Brees is one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, he's in his prime, and he has the smarts, passion, and work ethic to find ways to improve even when there seems to be so little room for improvement.
If his passing yards fall short of last season's second-highest total in NFL history, it should mean more victories for the Saints.
Two negative factors contributed to Brees' enormous passing-yardage total last season - an inconsistent running game and a too-frequent need to play from behind.
If the Saints run the ball more effectively and spend less time playing from behind, Brees will throw for fewer yards and the team will win more games.
Still, this is a pass-first, run-second offense. The Saints' passing offense can be more efficient this season. Marques Colston should be healthy, which should mean an 80-catch, 1,000-yard Pro Bowl-caliber season.
Devery Henderson offers a serious big-play threat that complements Colston's short- and medium-range efficiency.
Lance Moore emerged as a dependable playmaker last season, and former No. 1 draft choice Robert Meachem, entering his third season, appears poised to become more of a factor in the offense. He has the potential to morph Colston-like size and Henderson-like big-play ability to one playmaker.
The wild card in the offense remains tight end Jeremy Shockey. Fans have drooled about Shockey's potential to make big plays with so much talent surrounding him since even before the trade for him occurred last summer.
Injuries slowed Shockey last season and he never got into the end zone. He appears healthy and, unlike past years, participated in some of his team's voluntary offseason workouts. At the very least that should enable him to reach the end zone once.
The biggest question mark on offense is the running game, inconsistent last season and no longer including Deuce McAllister, the franchise's all-time leading rusher.
McAllister wasn't much of a factor last season, and Pierre Thomas, who'll enter training camp as the likely successor to McAllister, has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his first two seasons and appears ready to surpass McAllister's productivity last season.
Mike Bell appears capable of spelling Thomas effectively and even becoming the go-to guy if Thomas spits the bit.
Newcomer Heath Evans' presence should make New Orleans less predictable in short-yardage situations.
The unquestioned top big-play guy on offense is Reggie Bush, who had eight touchdowns in six games before getting hurt last season. In mini-camp he looked almost 100 percent recovered from offseason knee surgery and should have a big-time season.
The Saints' offensive line returns in tact. It's a cohesive group that has been outstanding in pass blocking and average in run blocking. It's still a young group and continued improvement is possible across the board.
Now, the defense.
New coordinator Gregg Williams has a better track record and a style that is more conducive to creating turnovers than his predecessor, Gary Gibbs.
Sedrick Ellis showed promise as a rookie last season and should improve and become a force at defensive tackle.
Paul Spicer and Rod Coleman should provide more depth on the defensive line, which will come in handy, especially during the first four games when staring ends Will Smith and Charles Grant will be suspended.
The secondary will be much improved with No. 1 pick Malcolm Jenkins and free agents Jabari Greer and Darren Sharper coming aboard, and Tracy Porter returning from a promising, injury-shortened rookie season.
If Garrett Hartley is as consistent a place-kicker as he was down the stretch last season, that will be a bonus. Martin Gramatica's shortcomings contributed to early-season losses against Denver and Minnesota.
The Saints drafted strong-legged Thomas Morstead to compete with Glen Pakulak and whoever emerges from that competition should be an upgrade from last season when Steve Weatherford's poor performance led to a trio of punters.
The scheduling gods have been kinder to New Orleans this season. Two years ago, the Saints played in the Kickoff Weekend opener, playing the Colts in Indianapolis on the night they were coronated as Super Bowl champions, then went to Tampa Bay.
New Orleans lost, triggering an 0-4 start from which it never fully recovered.
Last season, the Saints were away from the Superdome for five consecutive weeks at mid-season, thanks primarily to a taxing trip to London for a "home" game.
This season, New Orleans opens at home against the Detroit Lions, who are coming off the worst season in NFL history.
So here's your glass-is-half-full bottom line: The Saints take advantage of the easy opener and beat the Lions, weather the absence of Smith and Grant, use the young legs of Thomas and Bell to run the ball better and have a more balanced offense that keeps the defense off the field more, Shockey becomes a consistent weapon, the defense plays better and creates more turnovers, and New Orleans - thanks to a 4-2 division record, its first winning record in the division in three years - finishes 10-6 and wins the NFC South.
Soak it up now, because next Friday I'll have the glass-is-half-empty preview.
