Previewing free agency in the Southwest Division

Written by William Guillory Tuesday, 30 June 2009 22:18

Hornets News

The NBA opens the first phase of its free agency period on July 1. Free agents can hold discussions with any team they choose but cannot sign with a new club until July 8.

Despite the fact that some teams have already made big splashes this offseason with trades and acquisitions made during the NBA Draft, free agency is where teams can either put themselves in a position to win a championship or start looking forward to next year’s draft.

While big moves will be made throughout the NBA, we will be focusing primarily on the Southwest Division because that’s the New Orleans Hornets’ division.

Also, teams have to focus on beating the teams in their division before they can start considering winning a championship. No where is that fact more glaring than in the Southwest where 4 teams from the Southwest went to the playoffs last year (New Orleans, Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston). When that many good teams are in your division one slip-up during the offseason can have a really good team on the outside looking in when the playoffs start.

The Southwest Division’s five teams combined for 230 wins last season and no other division came within 14 wins of that mark.  So to say that the Hornets are playing in a tough grouping is probably an understatement.

Here is an update on what might happen with these teams during free agency:

New Orleans Hornets—49-33 in 2008; Playoffs: Lost to the Denver Nuggets in the first round (4-1)

Restricted Free Agents: None

Unrestricted Free Agents: Ryan Bowen, Melvin Ely, Sean Marks

In an article I released a few days ago, we talked about how the Hornets bringing in guards Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton through the draft displayed what moves the Hornets will be making in free agency, and which moves they won’t be making.

With the additions of these two guards, the most likely scenario for the Hornets during free agency is to try to sign a big man.

The NBA’s luxury tax threshold is expected to be around $70 million and the Hornets current payroll is expected to be well over that number.  So whoever the Hornets plan on bringing in through free agency, it will have to be a player who doesn’t demand a large contract, but still can make an impact on next year’s team.

Former LSU star Brandon Bass has been brought up by quite a few people as a possibility, and the Hornets have also expressed that they are still interested in signing former reserve Jannero Pargo.

The Hornets are expected to try and sign a few of their players that are free agents—in particular, Marks—so it seems as if the team will either have to start showing that they are willing to pay a few million dollars in luxury tax in order to put a championship team on the court or trade away a player such as Tyson Chandler or Peja Stojakovic in order to free up some cap space.

At this point, Chandler and Stojakovic don’t have much value amongst the other teams in the league with their long list of injuries they’ve suffered through this past season, so the former seems more likely than the latter.

San Antonio Spurs—54-28 in 2008; Playoffs: lost to the Dallas Mavericks in the first round (4-1)

Restricted Free Agents: None

Unrestricted Free Agents: Ime Udoka, Michael Finley, Drew Gooden, Jacque Vaughn

The Spurs have made the biggest move of all the teams in the division so far this offseason by acquiring small forward Richard Jefferson from the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Spurs sent aging role players Bruce Bowen, Fabrizio Oberto, and Kurt Thomas to Milwaukee in exchange for a player who can be a major contributor to San Antonio’s effort to join the Los Angeles Lakers as the only other team with four championships this decade.

This may turn out to be one of the most lop-sided trades we have seen in a long time.

As far as free agency goes, after trading for Jefferson, the Spurs salaries add up to about $72 million dollars since veteran guard Michael Finley picked up his option for next year after deciding against retirement. Since the acquisition of Jefferson, Finley will surely result see in a reduction of his minutes. But the chances for an NBA title also have increased.

The Spurs will have a little bit of wiggling room to add maybe one more player to their roster, but don’t expect any big names to join the Spurs unless they are willing to take a big pay cut.

But if there is one thing Tim Duncan, Gregg Poppovich and the rest of the Spurs have taught the basketball world it’s one thing: Never count the Spurs out.

Houston Rockets—53-29 in 2008; Playoffs: Lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Conference Semifinals (4-3)

Restricted Free Agents: None

Unrestricted Free Agents: Ron Artest, Von Wafer, Dikembe Mutumbo

The Houston Rockets are probably the biggest question mark heading into next season among all the teams in the Southwest.

Tracy McGrady will be returning next season after yet another knee surgery and there is no telling how much he can bring to this team next year.  The team has also recently reported that the broken foot Yao Ming suffered during this year’s playoffs can possibly cost him next season, and maybe even his career.

But the reason why this team is such a question mark headed into next season is because the y took the eventual NBA champion Lakers to seven games without McGrady and Yao, so there is no telling how good this team will actually be next year.

But at this point, the team’s No.1 priority heading into this offseason is re-signing the closest thing they currently have to a star, in Ron Artest.

Artest expressed interest in returning to Houston after the team’s game seven loss to the Lakers, but with so many questions about the team’s two best players, it won’t be very shocking to see him try to go to another team with a better chance to win next season.

Dikembe Mutumbo announced he will be retiring after suffering a knee injury during the playoffs, so the team must also look into signing a center during this offseason, because at this point, they don’t have one on the roster.

The team’s salaries add up to about $64 million headed into next season, so they may have enough cap room to make the necessary moves to stay afloat in the West.

But with Ron Artest as the best player on your team, can you really to be an elite team in the Western Conference?  Then, what happens in Artest decides to leave, what do they do then?

Only time can tell what the Rockets plan on doing to answer these questions, but whatever they do decide to do will be one of the big storylines during this offseason in the Southwest.

Dallas Mavericks—50-32 in 2008; Playoffs: Lost to the Denver Nuggets in Conference Semifinals (4-1)

Restricted Free Agents:  Ryan Hollins

Unrestricted Free Agents: Brandon Bass, Gerald Green, Jason Kidd, James Singleton

The Mavericks are a team a little bit in limbo at this point, and their actions this offseason will show what direction they plan on going over the next few seasons.

It is obvious that the Mavericks aren’t good enough, at this point, to compete for an NBA championship, but the players that are currently on the roster have contracts that prevent the Mavericks from making any big-time moves that can make this team into a true contender.

So, there No.1 priority will be to sign Jason Kidd and put the team’s fate into his hands.  If you are going to try and turn your team’s fortunes around, why not put your fate into a hall-of-fame point guard’s hands, right?

Kidd was not the player he once was in his prime for the Mavericks, but he was a solid performer, and it was no surprise that players such as Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry had one of their best seasons last year with Kidd as their floor general.

The Mavericks will be right around $70 million in payroll before they try to bring Kidd back, so they probably will try to bring Kidd back and try to go as far as he can take them.

With Kidd, 36, nearing the end of his career, this may be a lot to ask of him, but that’s all the Mavericks can do.

If Kidd decides to go elsewhere—some rumors have him going to New York or Portland—then things can get very ugly in Dallas, because there is no one currently on their roster or in free agency that can be the leader for that team that Kidd was last season.

So at this point, the Mavs offseason can pretty much be summarized as “Kidd or bust”.

Memphis Grizzlies—24-58 in 2008; Playoffs: None

Restricted Free Agents: Juan Carlos Navarro, Hakim Warrick

Unrestricted Free Agents: Chris Mihm, Quinton Ross, Mike Wilks

The Memphis Grizzlies have, by far, the most money to toy with this offseason among all the teams in the Southwest, with only about $38 million on their books going into next season.

The Grizzlies don’t seem to have much interest in bringing back any of their free agents, with the exception of maybe Hakim Warrick, so they should be able to make some major moves this summer.

The only question is, will they?

Memphis has a great core of young players who can become stars in the league one day, so the question is will they wait to spend their money on giving these players the huge contracts they will be demanding pretty soon?

Probably so, not to mention Memphis’ owners aren’t exactly known for giving out contracts to free agents anyway, so it won’t be a surprise to not see them make much movement this offseason.

Another good reason to not spend money this offseason is because the summer of 2010 will be the most remarkable of all-time, when it comes to quality players who will become free agents.

While it isn’t likely Memphis won’t land anybody like LeBron James or Dwyane Wade in 2010, there are plenty of great players who will be available, and that’s when Memphis will make their move to try and begin their quest to begin dethroning some of these teams in the Southwest.

Pre-free agency division winner:  San Antonio Spurs

Playoff Teams:  3 (San Antonio, New Orleans, Dallas)

As it has been for the past few seasons, the Southwest will be the best division in the NBA next season and it will be very interesting to see what teams will fight their way to the top of this division.  Whoever does will be one of the favorites to win the championship when the playoffs start.

But with free agency beginning tomorrow, the winner of this division will have to do all it can to win this division now and not hope things work out when the season starts.