When you have the kind of magical season which the New Orleans Saints are in the midst of, the question is most prominent on the minds of all--can the New Orleans Saints win the Super Bowl?

Of course, the answer is yes. They have the ability to do so. Then again, so do the Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals, in my estimation.

How do you separate from the pack? From the Saints perspective, it is all about getting healthy. The Saints running game has been much improved over 2008, largely due to a more physical offensive line and a three-headed attack with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush. Still, that aspect has suffered in productivity since the season-ending injury to Heath Evans.

Prior to the bevy of injuries on the defensive side of the football, the Saints were more than acceptable on defense, ranking in the top 10 or 15 in the league. That ranking had fallen to 22nd in the league at press time.

Losing Kendrick Clancy hurt against the run. Getting Sedrick Ellis back has helped in the same capacity. Losing Scott Fujita for a period of time hurt. He is smart and rangy--not a great player but a solid player, better than the team's reserves.

Most notable has been the play of the Saints' injury-depleted secondary. Darren Sharper's incredible play over the first half of the season dropped off a bit entering the second half of the season due to an injury and due to increased responsibility in having to cover for cover guys who simply weren't as good as those they replaced.

Like Sharper, Jabari Greer was playing at a Pro Bowl level before he went down with a groin injury, resulting in sports hernia surgery. Tracy Porter was a solid second corner, a good cover man who allowed the Saints to play more man-to-man defense and blitz more.

Randall Gay missed significant time and he is a seasoned nickel back who matches up well with third receivers. While Mike McKenzie came up huge against New England and has done a nice job filling in, others struggled, resulting in opponents lighting up the Saints with huge passing numbers.

Of course, opponents ran the ball well against New Orleans as well. Ultimately, that is more important. Playoff football is about defense and winning at the line-of-scrimmage. The Saints will have to tighten their ship in that aspect to have a shot at winning it all.

Studying the history of Super Bowl champions from a statistical perspective, the worst defenses to win a Super Bowl were the 2006 Indianapolis Colts, the 1984 Los Angeles Raiders, the 1968 New York Jets, the 1998 Denver Broncos and the 1980 Oakland Raiders.

The Colts allowed 22.5 points per game, the most ever for a Super Bowl champion. The 1984 Raiders allowed 21.1 points per game. the 1968 Jets allowed 20 points per game. The 1998 Broncos gave up 19.3 points per game. The 1980 Raiders allowed 19.1 points per game. Of the 43 Super Bowl champions, only 14 led the league in fewest points allowed. Nine Super Bowl champions led the league in points scored. The equates to 33% of the top-ranked defenses winning titles to 21% of the top offenses winning titles, in terms of points allowed and points scored.

At press time, the Saints were allowing 21.1 points per game (18th overall), which would tie them for second-worst with the 1984 Raiders for points allowed in terms of attempting to secure the Lombardi Trophy.

Of course, the numbers are relative, to a degree. The number of points allowed by the Saints has often come with points being allowed after-the-fact, with a victory secured in a one-sided game. Many have been allowed when the injuries had taken full effect.

Conversely, the Saints are the top-ranked offense and top scoring unit in the NFL. The weapons are plentiful. Drew Brees is an elite quarterback, perhaps the league's best this season. The innovative play-calling has been both entertaining and productive.

The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers were the top-ranked defense in the NFL. Still, they gave up 377 yards and three touchdown passes to Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals in a 27-23 victory for ages in Super Bowl 43. Incidentally, the Steelers were the worst-ranked offense, in terms of scoring (#20) to ever win a Super Bowl.

Numbers simply do not always tell the story. The Cardinals reached the Super Bowl with the NFL's 28th-ranked defense (out of 32 teams). They nearly won it. Had they done so, the Cardinals would have had the distinction of becoming the worst-ranked defense to ever win a Super Bowl.

In 2008, the New York Giants, despite having a good defensive reputation, ranked 17th in the league overall and won the Super Bowl 17-14 over previously unbeaten New England. They accomplished the feat by sacking Tom Brady five times and pressuring him throughout.

The 2007 Colts, who gave up the most points of any team that has even won the big game, ranked 23rd in the league in total defense and dead last (#32) against the run when they won the title by beating Chicago 29-17 in rainy Miami.

In 2006, the Steelers ranked third in the league defensively when they beat Seattle 21-10 to win it all. In 2005, the Patriots defense was tied for second in total defense with the Eagles when they downed Philadelphia 24-21.

In 2004, the Patriots were the league's top-ranked defense when they outscored Carolina 32-29 to win it all. in 2003, Tampa Bay was the top-ranked defensive unit in the league when they mauled Oakland 48-21.

In 2002, the Patriots were the league's sixth-ranked defense when they surprised the St. Louis Rams 20-17 in the Superdome. In 2001, the Ravens were one of the NFL's most dominant defenses in years for Brian Billick, the #1-ranked unit in the league when they hammered the New York Giants 34-7.

In 2000, many people remain under the impression that "the greatest show on turf," the high-powered St. Louis Rams of Kurt Warner, did it with a great offense and no defense. Think again. The Rams were the league's fourth-ranked defense in the NFL that season when they defeated Tennessee 23-16 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

Dating back to the 1997 Super Bowl in the Superdome when the Packers downed the Patriots 35-21 on the weekend that Mike Ditka was named as the new head coach of the New Orleans Saints, five of the last 14 Super Bowl champions have featured the league's top-ranked defense. Nine of the last 13 Super Bowl champions have had defenses ranked in the NFL's top five. 12 of the last 14 Super Bowl champion defenses ranked in the league's top ten units. The only exceptions were the 2008 Giants (17th) and the 2007 Colts (23rd).

Overall, 25 of the 43 Super Bowl winners (58%) had a top three-ranked defense in the league. 20 of the 43 (46.5%) have had a top three-ranked offense in the league. When you expand that number to top five-ranked defenses, the number of Super Bowl champions is 67%. When you expand that number to top five-ranked offenses, the number of Super Bowl champions is 63%. Extrapolating out to those ranked in the top ten, numbers are 91% of defenses and 84% of offenses winning Super Bowls.

Ultimately, in answering the question of whether the Saints can win the Super Bowl, it all comes down to relative health at the most important time--in the playoffs. Some teams get hot in the postseason (see 2008 Giants and 2007 Colts). The Giants offense, which struggled at times in the regular season, got hot in the playoffs as Eli Manning raised the level of his game. Of course, he engineered a Super Bowl-winning drive in the fourth quarter to end New England's quest for an unbeaten season.

The Colts' defense suddenly got stingy, supporting Peyton Manning's high-flying offense as they won in 2007.

The secret to winning it all is to get healthy, get hot and get tougher on defense. Of course, one statistic that swings overwhelmingly in the Saints favor is turnovers. Gregg Williams' defense has ranked #1 in the league all season long in forcing turnovers and the Saints have ranked near the top of the league in turnover ratio.

Interestingly, only two Super Bowl teams were ranked first in both offense and defense during the season. Those teams included the 1973 undefeated (17-0) Miami Dolphins, who beat Washington 14-7 for the Super Bowl title, and the previously mentioned 1997 Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers, led by Brett Favre on offense and the late Reggie White on defense.

The oldest axiom in all of sports is that offense sells tickets and defense wins championships. While the numbers lean slightly to defense over offense in winning Super Bowls, the real answer is to have a semblance of balance. That is the Saints goal the rest of the way in attempting to achieve their goal, their dream and the dream of so many who love and have loved the black and gold for many, many years, letting out loud cheers while crying many tears into numerous beers and enduring the jeers of scoffers who cast doubt and fears into the minds of supporters.

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