New Orleans Saints go fishing for 6th win at Miami

The New Orleans Saints have a large bulls-eye on their chests. That's the nature of being undefeated and regarded by many to be the best team in the NFL, to this point.

Taking aim on Sunday are the Miami Dolphins. Tony Sparano's fish are perhaps the most impressive 2-3 team in the NFL.

They run the ball with authority. The Dolphins lead the league in rushing yards per game with 177. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have been outstanding, whether in normal formations or via the Single-Wing formation, popularly known as the "Wildcat" formation. Brown has carried 93 times for 443 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Williams has carried for 61 carries for 316 yards and two scores, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

For Miami, it is all about ball control and wearing down the opponent. Former second-round draft pick Chad Henne has taken over for the injured Chad Pennington and the new Chad hasn't left the Dolphins hanging.

Henne has provided the ability to stretch the field which Pennington could not do. Henne has connected on 44 of 67 for 448 yards and three touchdowns.  
The top receivers include Davone Bess and Ted Ginn, Jr.

Bess leads with 23 catches but for only 175 yards for an average of 7.6 yards per reception. Ginn has 16 catches for 195 yards and a score. The numbers clearly indicate a receiving corps that is built for possession, not the long ball.

As a result, the game plan for the Saints defense of Gregg Williams appears obvious--pressure the Dolphins at all costs. The Saints blitz more than any other team in the NFL. The blitz can work every bit as well against the run as it does against the pass.

Out of the Wildcat, Brown will run it on a read. The formation provides for an extra blocker. Look for Williams to counter with an extra player or two in the box and blitzing. Roman Harper figures to play close to the line-of-scrimmage in this game.

It is worth taking the chance to get the Dolphins off the field. Miami is at the top of the league in time-of-possession. The task for Williams' defense is to get off the field, not allowing the Dolphins' offense to amass drives of 10 plays or more. Williams will often trust Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter to play man-to-man coverage on the Miami receivers.

This game is all about getting at-bats for the Saints' offense. While Miami is third against the run in the league, they are vulnerable to the pass. Ask Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

A key in the game will be for the Saints to get a lead, specifically, a two-score lead. Should the Saints build a double-digit lead, it would likely force the Dolphins out of their game plan to run the football consistently and into a passing mode.

The Dolphins, despite being a six-point underdog at home, have been a trendy pick of many national pundits this week. The indicators are obvious. Miami is healthy, well-rested and had two weeks to prepare. They have scouted the Buffalo video against the Saints, a game in which the Bills pressured Drew Brees better than any other team has, slowing the Saints offense.

The Dolphins are at home. They are the more desperate team at 2-3. They need the game. They are hungry. They are playing well. The Saints are coming off of an emotional, highly-focused, big-time game victory over the Giants and could be in for a letdown. The game is outdoors, on grass, It will be hot, with a high of 85 degrees and the humidity at about 80 percent. There is a 40 percent chance of rain.

All of these factors must be considered in analyzing this game. Still, the sense is that this is a very mature New Orleans Saints team and that Williams will find a way to slow down the Dolphins vaunted running game. It will not be easy but I expect the Saints to win, perhaps in the vicinity of seven points. Look for the Saints to reel in their catch after a struggle Sunday. I am calling it New Orleans 27-20 to get to 6-0.