By Jeff Crouere

March 28, 2008…After barely winning her initial Senate race in 1996 and surviving a serious challenge in 2002, Republican strategists targeted U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat in this fall’s election.

Unfortunately for Republicans defeating Landrieu will not be an easy task. Just look at what she has done in recent weeks in lining up endorsements from a most unusual group, Northshore Republicans. 
 
While Landrieu is considered a staunch Democrat, her voting record is notably moderate. Several months ago, GOP St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis surprised many political observers by endorsing Landrieu. Davis cited his close working relationship with Landrieu after Hurricane Katrina. Landrieu’s efforts to assist the region recover after Katrina was also highlighted by a number of other Northshore Republican leaders who endorsed Landrieu last week. Joining Davis in crossing the party aisle were Hammond Mayor Mayson Foster, Covington Mayor Candace Watkins, and St. Tammany Parish Assessor Patricia Schwartz Core.
 
The endorsements underscore the problem that Landrieu’s Republican challenger will face in the fall election. If Landrieu can unite the Democratic Party and win at least some support among Independents and Republicans, she will win again.
 
In the aftermath of Katrina, Landrieu was given high marks for her performance, especially when compared to former Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin. Furthermore, unlike her colleagues in the Louisiana congressional delegation, U.S. Senator David Vitter and Congressman Bill Jefferson, Landrieu has not been involved in any personal scandals or been charged with corruption. A recent power ranking of U.S. Senators conducted by Congress.org listed Landrieu in the top third, which compares favorably to Vitter, Louisiana’s other U.S. Senator, who ranked near the bottom, in the 85th position.
 
Due to the recent retirements in Louisiana’s congressional delegation, Landrieu, if re-elected, will have more seniority than any other member of our delegation except Bill Jefferson and his political future is questionable at best. In the fall campaign, Landrieu will undoubtedly make the case that her seniority will benefit the people of Louisiana.
 
Despite her advantages, Landrieu does face some serious challenges which may make her vulnerable in the fall election. Most significantly, Louisiana has experienced an outward migration of approximately 250,000 people due to the hurricanes and the majority of the displaced voters were registered Democrats and likely Landrieu supporters. In 1996 and 2002, Landrieu had very slim margins of victory. To win this fall, she must convince some people who previously voted against her to support her this time.
 
Opposing Landrieu will be State Treasurer John Kennedy, a newly registered Republican, who was recruited by GOP political strategist Karl Rove to switch parties. Since becoming a Republican, Kennedy has been successful in galvanizing GOP support both in Louisiana and on Capitol Hill. 

As State Treasurer, Kennedy has waged high profile fights with the Blanco administration and former Senate President Don Hines on issues ranging from the Road Home program to controversial sugar mills. During his tenure, Kennedy has been a strong advocate for fiscal responsibility and has become a popular fixture on statewide talk radio stations. In 2004, Kennedy ran for the U.S. Senate and finished a disappointing third; however, he certainly learned from that effort and will undoubtedly wage a more vigorous campaign this fall.

Kennedy will get a major boost next month when President Bush visits Baton Rouge to host a fundraiser for him. The event could bring in close to $1 million for Kennedy, who is at a fundraising disadvantage against an incumbent U.S. Senator. At present he is the only Republican in the race, although Secretary of State Jay Dardenne has not ruled out the possibility of challenging Kennedy in the GOP primary.